CONTEXT : International observers have expressed alarm regarding the rising tensions in the Arctic Region, cautioning that if these issues are not addressed, they may ultimately lead to conflict in the area.
Drivers of Geopolitical Conflict in the Arctic Region:
1. Vast Resources
Untapped Natural Reserves: Beneath the Arctic’s frozen landscape lie vast reserves of fossil fuels, rare earth elements, phosphates, copper, and lucrative fishing grounds.
Oil and Natural Gas: According to a Geological Survey report, the Arctic holds about 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of its untapped natural gas reserves, making it a highly coveted region for resource extraction.
Competition for Resources: These rich resources fuel competition among Arctic nations and other global powers, intensifying geopolitical conflicts as countries vie for control over these valuable assets.
2. New Trade Routes
Melting Ice and New Opportunities: The melting Arctic sea ice is opening up new commercial trade routes, offering strategic opportunities for global powers.
The Northeast Passage: One significant route is the Northeast Passage, running along Russia’s Arctic coast. This passage, connecting the Bering Strait to Norway, can reduce the maritime distance between East Asia and Europe by approximately 8,000 kilometers, compared to the traditional Suez Canal route.
Strategic Importance: As this route becomes more navigable, it shifts global trade dynamics and offers nations with Arctic access a significant geopolitical advantage.
3. Lack of Legal Safeguards
Absence of Binding Legal Framework: Unlike Antarctica, which has strong international legal protections under the Antarctic Treaty System, the Arctic lacks comprehensive legal safeguards.
UNCLOS Governance: The region is primarily governed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which allows nations to claim territories and build military infrastructure within the region, leading to potential conflicts over territorial boundaries.
Overlapping Claims: The lack of a clear and universally binding legal framework has resulted in overlapping territorial claims by Arctic nations, raising tensions and contributing to the growing geopolitical conflicts.
1. Russia’s Arctic Strategy and Actions
Symbolic Assertion of Presence (2007): In 2007, Russia made a bold statement by sending the MIR-1 submarine to the North Pole to plant a Russian flag on the seabed beneath the Arctic ice cap. This act was symbolic, demonstrating Russia’s capabilities and claim to Arctic sovereignty.
Military Bases: Russia has maintained several military bases in the Arctic, many of which date back to the Soviet era. These bases are critical to Russia’s military strategy in the region, allowing it to project power and safeguard its claims.
Strategic Naval Exercises (2022): Russia conducted joint naval exercises with China in the East China Sea in 2022. This raised concerns about the strategic implications for Arctic security, signaling growing ties between Russia and China in the Arctic region.
Northern Sea Route: Russia views the Northern Sea Route as a key component of its Arctic strategy. The Northern Sea Route, which connects Europe and Asia, offers Russia the opportunity to dominate this major shipping route, with the potential to boost its economy and influence over global trade.
Territorial Claims: Russia has made extensive claims over the Arctic seabed, including the Lomonosov Ridge, asserting that it is a natural prolongation of its continental shelf. This has led to overlapping claims with other Arctic nations, particularly Canada and Denmark, heightening territorial disputes.
Svalbard Dispute: Russia has also suggested that Norway’s Arctic island of Svalbard should come under its control, further adding to the geopolitical tensions in the region.
2. China’s Arctic Interests and Actions
“Near-Arctic State” Declaration: Despite being geographically distant from the Arctic, China declared itself a “near-Arctic state” in 2018. This move reflects China’s increasing interest in Arctic affairs and its desire to assert influence in the region.
Nuclear-Powered Icebreaker: China is planning to construct its first nuclear-powered icebreaker, a vessel capable of navigating the Arctic’s icy waters, marking its intent to expand its presence in the region.
Infrastructure and Resource Investments: China has been investing heavily in Arctic infrastructure and resources, raising concerns among Arctic nations about its growing involvement and strategic goals in the region, particularly in terms of energy resources and trade routes.
3. NATO’s Growing Presence in the Arctic
Sweden and Finland Joining NATO: Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland joined NATO, further intensifying the military presence in the Arctic region. The NATO alliance has conducted large-scale exercises near Russia’s Arctic border, particularly in Finland in 2024, signaling a shift in the region’s security dynamics.
Military Tensions: NATO’s increased involvement in the Arctic raises concerns over potential military confrontations with Russia, as the alliance seeks to bolster its defensive posture in the region amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
4. US and Canada Dispute over the Northwest Passage
Northwest Passage: The Northwest Passage—a potential Arctic shipping route through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago—has become a contentious point. Canada considers it part of its internal waters, which gives it control over navigation. In contrast, the United States argues that it is an international waterway, meaning that all nations should have the freedom to navigate it.
Geopolitical Implications: This disagreement highlights the broader geopolitical tensions between Canada and the US in the Arctic, particularly in terms of sovereignty and control over critical shipping routes.
5. Greenland Issue and US Strategic Interests
US Interest in Greenland: The United States has shown interest in purchasing Greenland from Denmark, citing strategic reasons related to military positioning and security concerns in the Arctic.
Thule Air Base: Greenland hosts the Thule Air Base, a critical US military installation that provides strategic advantages in the Arctic and serves as a key asset in the US defense system. This base is seen as crucial for early-warning radar systems and nuclear deterrence capabilities.
Geopolitical Strategy: The US interest in Greenland further complicates Arctic geopolitics, as it raises questions about territorial control and military influence in the region.
The Arctic Council:
Purpose and Mandate:
The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum established to address critical issues related to the Arctic region. Its primary goals include:
Environmental Protection: The Council works to safeguard the Arctic’s fragile environment, focusing on sustainability and combating environmental threats such as climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss.
Scientific Research: The Council promotes scientific collaboration and research to better understand the Arctic environment, ecosystems, and the effects of global warming.
Indigenous Peoples’ Rights: The Council also aims to protect the interests and rights of indigenous peoples in the Arctic, including their traditional ways of life, culture, and involvement in decision-making processes.
Formation and Legal Framework:
The Arctic Council was established in 1996 through the Ottawa Declaration, which set the framework for cooperation among Arctic states and other stakeholders.
Member States:
The Council’s members include the eight Arctic nations that hold sovereignty over the Arctic land and waters:
Canada
Denmark (through Greenland)
Finland
Iceland
Norway
Russia
Sweden
United States
These nations are responsible for managing Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), granting them rights to exploit natural resources within the region, such as oil, gas, and minerals.
Significance of the Arctic Council:
Sovereignty and Resource Exploration: The member nations of the Arctic Council not only have political and territorial sovereignty over their respective Arctic territories but also significant economic interests. This allows them to exploit resources within their EEZs, fueling competition for the region’s untapped natural resources, especially as the Arctic’s ice cover melts due to climate change.
Geopolitical and Economic Influence: While the Arctic does not yet rival major global trade arteries like the Suez Canal or the Malacca Strait, the competition in the region is intensifying. As ice melts, new shipping routes such as the Northern Sea Route are becoming more navigable, creating economic opportunities and potentially reshaping global trade dynamics.
Slow-Motion Competition: The “slow, silent competition” beneath the Arctic’s melting ice refers to the evolving geopolitical and economic race among Arctic states and global powers to control and exploit new resources, shipping lanes, and strategic military positioning.
The Arctic’s Role in International Relations:
Environmental Challenges: The Arctic Council serves as a forum for managing environmental challenges in a region facing unprecedented changes due to global warming. The effects of melting ice on global climate and weather patterns are significant and require international cooperation to mitigate further damage.
Indigenous Rights: The involvement of indigenous peoples in the Arctic Council ensures their voices are heard in policy discussions related to the Arctic. These communities are deeply connected to the land and dependent on its resources for their livelihoods. Their participation is crucial for the sustainability of the Arctic environment and economy.
Geopolitical Tensions: While the Arctic Council has succeeded in fostering cooperation among Arctic nations, the geopolitical tensions in the region—driven by territorial claims and competition for resources—are becoming increasingly complex. The Council plays a key role in mediating conflicts but cannot resolve all territorial disputes or prevent the growing military presence of some nations.
Conclusion:
The Arctic is a region of immense potential, and the Arctic Council plays a vital role in managing the region’s challenges and opportunities. As the world shifts towards resource exploitation and new trade routes, the Council’s focus on environmental protection, scientific research, and indigenous rights will remain central. However, the geopolitical competition and territorial disputes are reshaping the international relations and economic balance in the Arctic, making it a region of both collaboration and conflict.
Would you like to delve deeper into any particular aspect of the Arctic Council’s role or the geopolitical dynamics in the Arctic?